عنوان البحث: الإنذار المبكر بمرض صدأ أوراق القمح والتنبؤ بحالة المرض بناء على نمذجة الطقس.
الملخص: Wheat leaf rust (WLR), caused by Puccinia triticina (Pt) is an epidemic disease. The present study was concerned with the epidemiology of WLR disease in Egypt during the 2014/16 growing seasons, in Egypt. To study the effect of climatic factors on WLR incidence; four wheat genotypes were screened against WLR, under field conditions at Kafer El-Sheikh and Beni-Suef governorates. The average daily temperature during the four months of the study was closely related to the development and final rust severity %. The weather data indicated that most of January and February nights of 2014/2015 were relatively cool (min temperature <10°C) at wheat growing areas. There was a big contrast in this regard with January and February of 2015/2016 at Kafr El-Sheikh and Beni Suef, which had relatively warm nights. An epidemic of WLR disease started 10 to 16 days earlier during 2015/2016 rather than 2014/2015. It depends on the favorability of weather conditions such as early warm seasons. Disease infection in wheat crop highly influenced meteorometeorids’ highly influenced logicall factors. The weather-based modeling for early warring disease infestation may provide appropriate tool for investigating and predicting disease status.
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محمد على فهيم